September 24, 2025 l Business Mirror
Prospective hindsight, in as simple definition as possible, is looking into the future and trying to envision a scenario of a possible problem or challenge or concern of a certain area.
Some of the latter could be using your present software or the turnover of employees, especially key people; a possibility that a CEO or the owner will suddenly no longer be there either through death or sickness or other possible reasons.
These prompt the need to innovate in the future and other possible scenarios. After that you work backwards not only to determine the reason but to do something to avoid it happening.
Another way to explain prospective hindsight, according to an April 24, 2023, article on forbes.com, is to use one bias (the hindsight bias) to beat another bias (the planning fallacy).
As the head of our firm, it just occurred to me that rightly so, this makes sense, especially when I also look into succession planning, which is part of a prospective hindsight. However, there are also disadvantages. In every decision one should make, both sides should be weighed and determine whether the pros outweigh the cons.
The pros could include increasing the likelihood of not only preventing the problems that may occur but also increasing the likelihood of a project being successful. For instance, if the company is planning to construct an office building where part of the space is for company office and another to be opened for lease, one must look at all sides. Will it be convenient for current clients and more visible to prospective clients? Will you be able to achieve the return on the investment and how many years? What if there are not enough tenants; what are you going to do with the unoccupied spaces? It looks like a feasibility study but from a high-level perspective or a macro view.
To be able to identify potential problems and challenges and find ways to mitigate them or prevent them altogether could be an effective risk management. This is more effective when a team is doing this to be able to get various views and dig up unmentioned weaknesses or threats such as purchasing a software or innovating systems and processes in the office. This is also a tool that can be incorporated into strategic planning.
The cons or the downsides could also be various. It can be uncomfortable for your team to talk about the possible failure of a project, the loss of a key employee or a fixed asset becoming a white elephant. And there is the difficulty and the challenge to imagine to truly be there and how to feel it’s real impact.
A research conducted in 1989 by Deborah J. Mitchell of the Wharton School and Jay Russo of Cornell and Nancy Pennington of the University of Colorado revealed that prospective hindsight or pre-mortem increases the ability to correctly identify reasons for future outcomes by 30 percent (Harvard Business Review, September 2007). The paper mentioned about an example of a Fortune 50-sized company conducting a pre-mortem session where an executive suggested a scenario on the failure of a billion-dollar environment sustainability project because of the waning of interest when the CEO retired.
Another possibility of failure could be due to the dilution of the business case after a government agency revised its policies. Everyone contributed to the list and, at the end of the day, the project manager looked for ways to strengthen the plan based on the list.
It is not only in business that we should have a prospective hindsight strategy. This should apply to our personal lives as well. For instance, you plan to hold a garden wedding.
Do not presume that the weather that day would be good. Prepare for a worst case scenario such as a back-up area for heavy rainfall. Are you going to have umbrellas prepared for everybody for light rains?
In both professional and personal life, having this kind of insight is trying to get in touch with your fears and facing up to it. By doing so, you will realize that what will happen (even in the worst-case scenario) and the results of it are not as bad as you imagine it to be.
According to Ifeanyi Enoch Onuoha, “to fulfill your vision, you must have hindsight, insight and foresight.”
For me, a prospective hindsight is not about being pessimistic about the future. It is about calculating the risks so that you can be confident and optimistic that you can handle the future.
Therefore, right planning involves looking at the future with preparation, listening to wise advice and meticulous research, and committing one’s work to the Lord for us to discern His will.
***The views expressed herein are her own and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of her office as well as FINEX. For comments, email wimiranda@inventormiranda.com. Photo is from Pinterest.