April 22, 2026 l Business Mirror
In this times of crisis cascading from the ongoing war started by the US and Israel against Iran, I thought it might be instructive to share with my readers some selected quotes from an old Harvard Business Review magazine (2012) titled “Managing Uncertainty.”
The excerpts trigger the mind to ponder, to be more accepting of realities, and to realize that uncertainty does not equate to helpless inability.
“Adaptability: The New Competitive Advantage” captures the main message of Martin Reeves and Mike Deimier in their article of that title.
They said that “we live in an era of risk and instability.”
“Globalization, new technology and greater transparency have combined to upend the business environment…” (and dare I might add, military misadventures of super powers.)
“All this uncertainty poses a tremendous challenge for strategy making. That’s because traditional approaches to strategy—though often seen as the answer to change and uncertainty—actually assume a relatively stable and predictable world.”
Here’s their recommendation.
“Instead of being really good at doing some particular thing, companies must be really good at learning how to do new things. Those that thrive are quick to read and act on signals of change.” (Underscoring supplied.)
In another article, “The Six Mistakes Executives Make in Risk Management,” authored by Nassim N. Taleb, Daniel G. Goldstein, and Mark W. Spitznagel, these are their conclusions:
“Low-probability, high impact events that are almost impossible to forecast—we call them Black Swan events—are increasingly dominating the environment… Risk management, we believe, should be about lessening the impact of what we don’t understand – not a futile attempt to develop sophisticated techniques and stories that perpetuate our illusion of being able to understand and predict the social and economic environment” (Underscoring supplied.)
Read that again: “our illusion of being able to understand and predict;” for we can never ever really predict what the future holds for us.
So these authors point out the six mistakes Eexecutives make in risk management:
1. We think we can manage risk by predicting extreme events.
2. We are convinced that studying the past will help us manage risk.
3. We don’t listen to advice about what we shouldn’t do.
4. We assume that that risk can be measured by standard deviation.
5. We don’t appreciate that what’s mathematically equivalent isn’t psychologically so.
6. We are taught that efficiency and maximizing shareholder” value don’t tolerate redundancy.
In my 70 years of work experience since graduation from college (a dubious secret) I find that two attitudes standout to hinder adaptability.
First is complacency: the tendency to just let things go with the flow or the feeling that things will take care of themselves. It’s the Pinoy’s “Bahala na” attitude. Second is over self-confidence: the conviction of a know-it-all who listens to no one or who is convinced he can’t make any mistake.
In difficult times of uncertainty, I am endlessly amused by, again, another Pinoy reaction: “Bahala na si Batman.”
How serious can we get?
***The views expressed herein are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of his office as well as FINEX. For comments, email santidumlaojr@gmail.com. Photo is from Pinterest.