Zoilo ‘Bingo’ Dejaresco III l October 18, 2023 l Business Mirror
“This land is mine, God gave this land to me. This brave and golden land to me. If I must fight, I’ll fight to make this land our own. Until I die, this land is mine.”
Brave, poignant lyrics from the movie “Exodus” tell about the birth of the nation of Israel in 1948 and the “wandering Jews” finally finding their own home.
The history of the Israelites started in 931 BC when the Kingdom of Judah was divided into Israel and Judea. After centuries of religious conflict and political persecution, the Israelites had transformed their nation (Israel) into one of the most scientifically adept and militarily strong nations—defeating far superior odds in the past.
Two-thirds of the Israeli Jews believe they are the “Chosen People.”
Since 2007, on the other hand, the Hamas Party has ruled Gaza and the animosity toward Israel remained. Iran, likewise, also remains dedicated to the goal of annihilating Israel.
Hamas stealthily did a “Pearl Harbor” on Israel last week—attacking and slaughtering civilians and carting away 199 hostages. Israel responded with air and missile attacks on Gaza and denying food, power, and water, punishing 2.3 million innocent non-Hamas Palestinian citizens.
Thousands on both sides (2,600 in Gaza alone) have died and more wounded in the worst war outbreak Israel has faced in decades.
As of this writing, some one million Gaza residents were asked to move south—before a massive land-air-sea attack of Israel against the remaining Hamas. Israel, however, fears developing worldwide hatred for Israel if too much “collateral damage” on civilians is done to obliterate maybe just 50,000 fanatical Hamas members. Israel does not want to appear “burning an entire house to kill one rat.”
There are overtures to open the gates of say Rafah in Egypt as a safe corridor for civilians to avoid armed conflict. Likewise, talks of exchanging Hamas’ hostages with Palestinian political prisoners. Hamas, however, is not expected to agree to either since both are their only insurance for survival—as “human shields.”
Israel’s Gaza attack, meantime, is not the moral equivalent of that of Ukraine, which, despite over a year of Russian territorial usurpation, never crossed the borders of Russia to retaliate. Of course, Ukrainians are not Israelites.
Israel is categorically intent on revenge and punishing Gaza to ashes and is a country that is not known to negotiate with terrorists.
Israel is supported by two standby American super aircraft carriers in the vicinity. However, the European Union has asked for consistency that while it condemns the Hamas attack, it will not condone an Israel blockade of food, medicine, water and power—as this is violative of international law.
Assuming Hamas is exterminated, who will rule Gaza? Certainly, Israel wishes nothing to do with the disputed Gaza, and a United Nations force temporarily taking over—prior to a Gaza general election—would seem to be, at the moment, the only viable alternative. No way will Israel allow Hamas to rule again.
Minimizing the consequences
Analysts project that unless the major Arab oil-producing nations get involved in the Israel fray, there will not be much effect on the prices of oil since Israel is not an oil-producing nation.
In fact, many Arab nations had already started the road to peace with Israel before the Hamas attack. Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco had, in fact, already signed peace overtures with Israel while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were set to sign their own with Tel Aviv.
Some suspect that Iran (whose frozen assets were recently set free by President Joe Biden) precisely helped plan the Gaza assault to sabotage the Israel-Middle East peace plan.
The presence of American war carriers (Ford and Eisenhower ships) is meant as a deterrent for any foolish nation that tries to get involved in the recent Israel imbroglio. News has it that some token missile firing at Israel was done in southern Lebanon from the Syrian border, and the Hezbollah. The Taliban in Afghanistan also voiced their willingness to fight Israel with the $7 billion worth of military equipment that the US left behind when they abandoned Afghanistan a few years ago.
Though militarily prepared to the teeth, defense analysts do not expect major involvement of other Middle Eastern nations in the Israel war. For instance, Iran is embroiled in too much political instability, the Taliban is in disorganized chaos and Lebanon has been crushed by a severe four-year economic crisis to bundle enough political will to dare do military experiments abroad, like a violent engagement against Israel.
On the sidelines, it is Russia who is secretly enjoying the scene since America’s attention will be divided now between Israel and Ukraine.
The aftermath
After Hamas’ obliteration, Israel is expected to insist that any future settlement of Palestinians, after that, will have to be outside the current boundaries of Israel. Worldwide support is also present for Palestine to finally have its own place as a nation.
Post-Gaza and seeing the futility of violence in their region (as a consequence of the Hamas-foreseen defeat), many Arab nations will likely resolutely pursue the path of peace with Israel—after the gun smoke has settled.
But not all will be well for Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His unpopularity had scaled up even before the Hamas attack. And now the total ineptitude of Israeli intelligence that allowed Hamas to attack so decisively.
History may not be too kind to Netanyahu. Reading history—after any major battle that Israel engages in, the Prime Minister always loses his position. As in Golda Meir (after the You Kippur War), Menachem Begin (in 1982 after the first Lebanon war), and Ehud Olmert (2006 after the second Lebanon war).
Will the Gaza problem be dramatically resolved and Netanyahu stay in power?
The clock is indeed ticking and the world is watching Israel with stunned attention.
*** Bingo Dejaresco, a former banker, is a financial consultant, media practitioner, and author. He is a Life and Media member of Finex. His views here, however, are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of Finex. Dejarescobingo@yahoo.com