Zoilo “Bingo” P. Dejaresco III l May 31, 2022 l Manila Bulletin
President-elect Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is expected to face some tortuous crossroads as he navigates through the first year of his presidency.
To our mind, these are 10 of the top concerns:
* Targeting only a 6.5% GDP growth rate amidst a raging 4% inflation will effectively erode its positive gains for the common good. When GDP growth is unevenly distributed and inflation is on all, it is always the poor who will suffer the most.
* Increased disparity in income distribution resulting from the pandemic – where 100 top families increased their net worth considerably while 21 million Filipinos slid back below the poverty line (a sad fall back into the 2017 level).
* Scary debt-to-GDP ratio of 63.5% which is reportedly above the international acceptance threshold of 60% as revealed by former NEDA Chief Ernesto Pernia. Unprecedented P12.8 trillion national debt; the new ones highlighted by high ODA (Official Development Assistance) funds carrying “foreign exchange risk” as they are denominated in foreign currency amid a faltering peso.
* National Government will be hard-pressed to fiscally put socio-economic programs as some P1-trillion of the GA (General Appropriations) will be given to LGUS per the “Mandanas Ruling” of the Supreme Court. Especially at this time when businesses are just recovering from the pandemic woes, thus, putting pressure on the BIR (internal revenues) and the BOC (customs).
* Need to do a balancing act to preserve the “Duterte-China” play but at the same time honor joint military exercises and Visiting forces Agreement. Need for a huge budget to strengthen the military defense position while pushing for a common “ASEAN-China” alliance.
* Dealing with Congress characterized by multi-party divisions with no basic ideology and elected mainly based on personalities. Facing a possibly strong opposition through Civil Society centered on the members of the “Leni for President” Movement who had shown consuming passion and commitment to democratic ideals buttressed with Church backing. Resist the urge to deal both with an” iron fist.”
* How to present an accountable, transparent, and rule-of-law governance that will attract private investors to participate in PPP (public-private partnership) to fill the investment gap in Build, Build, Build program or BBB) who are especially wary of a new batch of crony capitalists and hangers-on of the Marcos campaign.
* Address PH’s tag as having “one of the most expensive power in Asia” and replace “King Coal” with alternative sustainable fuels and include the acceptance of nuclear power technology demonized by the mothballed Bataan Nuclear Plant.
* Develop our soil blessed with one of the richest minerals in the world through mining without adding to the tragedy that the nation is already “one of the most vulnerable” nations to natural disasters.
* Tamper with the present form of government into Parliamentary-Federal system which several past administrations failed to pass. To objectively assess allegations that the 1987 Constitution is the main reason for the failure of foreign investors to get attracted to the Philippines.
To assess fairly whether the theory that the last 32 years (after EDSA) is a failed “Yellow Legacy” when 19 of those 32 years were served by Gloria M. Arroyo (10 years), Erap Estrada( 3 years) and Rodrigo Duterte (6 years)- all allied in the 2022 Marcos coalition-campaign.
Will the New Dispensation hurdle these barriers well enough soon?
*** (Bingo Dejaresco, a former banker, is a financial consultant and media practitioner. He is a Life and Media Member of Finex.
His views here, however, are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of Finex. Dejarescobingo@yahoo.com)