ZOILO ‘BINGO’ DEJARESCO III l February 16, 2023 l Business Mirror
There are danger signs that the next geopolitical flashpoint could be Taiwan. Batanes is just a shouting distance from Taiwan, and more is the danger.
China’s current main foreign policy is to “reunify” the Mainland and Taiwan with means fair and foul. Taiwan has recorded almost daily incursions into its air space of Chinese fighter jets—the last count at 446 times.
Associated Press reports said there is a Taiwanese billionaire who is setting aside $100 million to build a Taiwanese civilian army of 3 million (300,000 snipers) people and a million drones in anticipation of an invasion by China. Every weekend, hundreds of Taiwanese youth voluntarily undergo military training, including search and rescue operations.
They claim this is a small price to pay for freedom and democracy and “they will never allow going Hong Kong’s way,” which is repressed by stringent Chinese rules. It is known that Taiwan has only a small military—only representing one percent of the population of 23.57 million.
China’s scare tactics have not been lost on the Taiwanese as they realized the brutal reality of another country, Russia, unilaterally forcing occupation on another country, Ukraine, even without provocation.
Taiwan is a strategic entry point to the Indo-Pacific domain and is in the middle of the South China Sea, which China has claimed as its own under its faulty “9-Dash Line” theory and which hosts $5-trillion worth of business goods traversing the waters every year. Free entry of navigation here, therefore, is a must for world trade to prosper. So, if there would be a “clash of nations” anywhere, this could be it.
Reading current history reveals as much. The EDCA (Enhanced Development Cooperation Agreement) between the Philippines and the USA has been radically enhanced, and two new sites of cooperation have been ominously chosen in Cagayan, a few kilometers away from Taiwan.
Our leader is open to talks for a “defense QUAD” to include the USA, the Philippines, Australia (a Visiting Forces Agreement was signed in 2007), and also Japan and even South Korea, which hosts American military bases.
Almost at the same time as China’s saber-rattling over Taiwan, America shot down a Chinese “spy balloon” hovering over its territory —in Atlanta, Montana, and Carolina and another one in an allied nation, Canada. Breaking news the other day had Beijing mouthing the same line that 10 American spy balloons were also over China.
Both the American Navy and Air Force have been saying these days that China invading Taiwan is not a matter of “if” but “when”. Including their think tanks like Rand Corporation, the conclusion is that the frightening event is projected to occur between 2024-2027. That’s closer than anyone thinks.
Taiwan is 600 kilometers away from China, but so are the Japanese islands. Taiwan (not Ukraine) is the main reason why Japan has discarded its “strategic ambiguity” and its Pacifist constitution that renounces war. It has rearmed itself at a rate never seen since World War II. Japan now spends 2 percent of its GDP on defense and is now the third largest military spender in the world. (America has a number of military bases in Japan).
In the Obama and Trump eras, Washington shed off its “Robocop” mentality and had shown reluctance to deal with international disputes. The current Democrat President Joe Biden, however, is not as ambiguous as he had repeated four times recently that, doubtless, America will protect Taiwan if invaded—not even discounting the act of sending American troops.
Granting without admitting that the war combats will be isolated in the Pacific region involving the QUAD nations—Taiwan versus China (meaning no nuclear detonations and global dispersal of violence)—what has the world at large have to be wary about?
Well, Taiwan and its 12 large manufacturing companies produce 90 percent of the world’s computer microchips, the foundation of the world’s booming digital economy. “Global catastrophe” is the consequence if they are destroyed in a full-scale war.
America and its allies, of course, face a dilemma, according to analysts, if they confront China over Taiwan. If they retreat, they will have allowed China to control the technological empire of Taiwan and use it for aggressive geopolitical domination. If they do full-scale war, they will be partly to blame for Taiwan’s destruction.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, on the other hand, believes that in that war, America, the biggest military might in the world, will be able to repel the “dragon.”
What is the best solution then —peaceful reunification or a bloody one? Some pacifists think it is neither. But the resolve of America and her allies to stand by Taiwan is a necessity.
Only by standing together in solidarity with Taiwan and foisting an imminent defeat and embarrassment for Beijing will China be deterred from carrying out its long-planned invasion of Taiwan.
Due to its too-close-for-comfort nearness to Taiwan geographically, the Philippines can be an important cog in this international chess game of varying national interests.
Though the Ukraine war is a pain in the neck, it is worldwide folly to ignore what is currently developing in Taiwan and the great superpowers involved.
*** A former banker, Dejaresco is a financial consultant and a media practitioner. He is a Life and media member of Finex. His views here are, however, personal and do not necessarily reflect those of Finex.