Zoilo “Bingo” P. Dejaresco III l October 17, 2023 l Manila Bulletin
HISTORIANS WILL REMEMBER that it was territorial greed and influence expansionism that triggered World War II, primarily by the Axis powers: Germany, Japan, and Italy.
Led by dictators and a heavy-handed monarch, the three, Germany (Adolf Hitler), Japan (Emperor Hirohito), and Italy (Benito Mussolini) signed the infamous Tripartite Act defining their Axis alliance on September 27, 1940. Earlier, on December 11, 1937, the three withdrew from the League of Nations.
Their march towards usurping territories started long before that. Fascist Italy invaded Ethiopia in 1935 while Japan occupied Manchuria ( Northeastern China) as early as 1931 and engaged Beijing in 1937 in a full-scale war. Nazi Germany occupied the Rhineland in 1931 and in 1938 annexed Austria and Sudetendland (Brittanica).
Germany also intervened in the Spanish Civil War and promised that the Aryan race would stop Bolshevism (Russia). In September 1940, World War II officially started when Germany invaded Poland. Eventually, smaller nations took sides with the Axis: Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Yugolsavia, Croatia, and Finland.
Hitler allowed Italy to be undeterred in its conquests even as Germany took the lead to overcome and dominate Europe while asking Japan to take control of Greater Asia. They warned the United States of America not to take sides.
However, in December 1941 ( Day of Infamy), Japan stealthily launched a massive aerial attack on the US’ Pearl Harbor naval base dragging America into war. By 1942, the leaders of the new-found Allied alliance led by the United States (Franklin Roosevelt), Great Britain ( Winston Churchill), and Russia (Joseph Stalin) declared the formation of the United Nations together with 15 other states. By 1945, 21 other nations declared war on Germany.
Hitler’s suicide in April 1945 led to the surrender of Germany on May 8-9, 1945. Italy had betrayed the Axis powers after suffering great military setbacks in the Balkans, North Africa, the Eastern Front, and Greece without marked support from Hitler. When the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan also unilaterally surrendered in September 1945 – thus, formally ending World War II.
All told, World War II cost the world: (adjusted for inflation) US$4-Trillion (Paramatta History) and 85 million dead ( Brittanica)– 56 million (directly due to the war) and 28 million (due ot disease and famine). In the Philippines, about 5 million died (Britannica).
NEW AXIS POWER
Fast toward circa 2023: a new axis of power seems to be emerging borne out of necessity and isolation. They are Russia (President Vladimir Putin), China (President Xi Jinping) and North Korea (President Kim Jong Un).
Russia is slowly losing all its friends and has become almost an international pariah, thus, inviting the weird North Korean leader who traveled by bulletproof train to Russia. Putin and Xi had long been allies- and the current international juxtaposition of nations had drawn each other closer to protect their mutual interests.
North Korea is shipping artillery and supplies to Moscow while China is providing dual-use technology and components to Russia. Everyone knows Russia is strong in oil- in fact, some dependence of Europe on them has been noted for a long time.
An American think tank ( Rand Corporation) sends warning signals about the confluence of interests of these three nations with marked “imperialistic goals”. Russia is hurting from the USSR’s disintegration and NATO’s creeping presence in Eastern Europe. Russia wants to bring back the glory days of the Tsar Of Russia and bring back lost states like Crimea and Ukraine.
China, on the other hand, has not been bashful about its goals to become a regional and if not global dominating power by 2049. North Korea, meanwhile, has always been a “problem child” for the world- with its anxious nuclearization of the Korean peninsula, launching missiles near enemy territories, and in general saber-rattling for its warmongering tendencies even as the nation starves.
China, in the meantime, has been aggressive in usurping territorial rights in the South China Sea forced the formation of the US/Japan/South Korea trilateral defense alliance, and fueled international outrage over their bullying attacks at sea. Japan, Australia, Germany Great Britain, and France have also been particularly peeved. Eventually, like in World War II, smaller nations will be forced to take sides.
One news source indicated China has been “testing how much it can push in the South China Sea until someone pushes back”. It is an undisguised provocation. Not all is well on the side of their woods, however. China’s economy is not in the pink of health and may derail its “Belt and Road” Initiative for economic influence globally. Russia is suffering significantly from the economic sanctions and the burdensome cost of the war in Ukraine that it is not winning. Its embrace of North Koreans’ arms seems like an act of desperation- knowing the poor quality of Kim Jong Un’s weaponry.
The socio-political situation in North Korea is precarious with the majority of the people lacking in food and freedom. They cannot be a hostage in fear forever. The Wagner incident in Moscow, on the other hand, also shows there are political cracks in the Kremlin Wall and Russia has had border issues with China for many years past.
THE REAL DANGERS
Foremost of these dangers is that all three of them possess nuclear weapons. If the trigger points are in the hands of a despot (Putin) and a slightly off-tangent mind (Un), danger lurks like things can happen really bad even tomorrow.
No one knows when Xi will realize how economically disabling continued warfare anywhere can be for all nations (including China)- and start convincing Putin to a “win-win solution” in Ukraine. Soon, ever, never?
If the Axis, Rand Corporation thinks loudly, sets off various theaters of war say in the Middle East (via Palestine as a proxy vs. Israel?), Taiwan, South China Sea, and the Baltic Sea amid a stalemate in Ukraine, will the US and NATO have the resources- and the national wills- to stave off head-on this new Axis powers?
Can it sustain a multi-pronged war on many fronts? Can the world survive it economically?