Infinite games in finance and diplomacy

Ronald Goseco l September 29, 2023 l The Manila Times

A FINEX colleague, James Bonus, recently wrote about finance lessons from Simon Sinek who wrote a book, “The Infinite Game” in 2019. Sinek applied ideas from James Carse’s seminal book to business and leadership topics. According to Sinek, by applying the “infinite game” concept in finance, priorities will change to channel efforts focusing on stimulating innovation and building resilient strategies capable of addressing uncertainties, evolving regulations, market fluctuations and technological advancements that go beyond the short-term outlook that we as finance practitioners usually focus on.

He described the concept of an infinite game as an alternative lens through which we can gain a deeper understanding of the challenges and dynamics of play. Compared to finite games, which have fixed rules and predetermined winners, infinite games are characterized by evolving rules, and their aim is perpetuating the game itself. This perspective sheds light on how we operate within a broader context striving for sustainable success. I would like to relate this to diplomacy and specifically to two recent events that appear incongruous or perplexing at the very least.

The first event is the recent announcement by the Commission on Higher Education (CHEd) of their initiative partnering 10 local higher education institutions (HEIs) with Chinese HEIs through people exchanges and resource mobilization. This was initiated by the CHEd to fulfil the agreement between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the visit of President Marcos to China in January.

According to CHEd, “this will enhance the quality of education, expose [our] students to diverse perspectives and equip them with the skills necessary to thrive in a globalized society.” This included the University of the Philippines (UP), which will collaborate with the Guiyang Institute of Humanities and Technology to initiate international collaborative research, academic development exchanges, internships, student exchanges and joint supervision for master and doctoral programs.

It can be recalled that in 2022, there was a red-tagging controversy at UP where it was alleged that the university was a prime breeding ground for communism. It would be interesting to see how these student exchanges would develop the political maturity of the UP community and how the government will react in the future. The second event which hit the news recently was the cutting of a floating barrier that blocked Filipino fishermen at Scarborough Shoal. Aside from this physical barrier, there were Chinese vessels in the area that hampered the entry of Filipino fishermen.

The Philippine Coast Guard conducted a special operation to remove this barrier. This naturally elicited a strong objection from the Chinese government, which effectively seized control in 2012 by simply occupying it. Interestingly, a cursory search for the historical modes of acquisition of territory by sovereign states revealed that occupation was one of three ways by which this was achieved under international law. The other two being subjugation or purchase as in the purchase of Alaska by the Americans from the Russians.

We are, of course, banking on the 2016 arbitral ruling by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea which cited both historical documents and our proximity to these areas. These two aforementioned events seem to be at odds with each other but if you consider the long game of the Chinese who measures time in decades and centuries, it could make sense. The Chinese state has already established footholds in many of our industries, notably telecommunications and energy. They have also established strong relationships with many of our political leaders.

Some of their initiatives are also quite fascinating. In a recent flight from Bacolod, I was seated beside Chinese researchers from the Chinese Academy of Science and Technology who were researching on the innocuous project of seaweed farming. They were very proud to say that they have traveled all over the country to do this research. I can only imagine how all this research and this particular project would turn out.

Diplomacy clearly falls under the concept of an infinite game despite the perception that international relations is often seen as finite negotiations and conflicts. In essence, it seeks to establish peaceful and constructive relations between nations transcending individual negotiations or treaties. Infinite diplomacy recognizes that the geopolitical landscape is in constant flux and traditional alliances may evolve over time.

It is clear that finance and diplomacy are intricately linked on the global stage. Economic stability and prosperity play a pivotal role in shaping diplomatic and trade relations between our countries. When viewed as infinite games, these fields will converge as they are starting to, on the goal of creating a world where both financial well-being and peace are sustained over the long term. This is not being achieved in a clear and linear manner. I am hopeful that these complex relationships in trade, in politics and in education would prosper and lead to more sustainable and harmonious relationships in the future.

*** Ronald Goseco is currently a FINEX Foundation Trustee, but his opinions are his own

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