Zoilo ‘Bingo’ Dejaresco III l August 30, 2023 l Business Mirror
THEY are always an odd couple: former US President Donald Trump and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Odd because being ideologically estranged, the symbol of rabid capitalism (Trump) and a straggler of communist politics (Putin), are chums in real life.
Of course, there is suspicion that Russian trolls in Moscow helped Trump win over Hillary Clinton in 2016. But that is another long story.
In the last few days, the newswires have been sizzling with “Big News” from America and Russia.
In Atlanta, Trump was recently fingerprinted and had mug shots taken—with a scowling face—being indicted for racketeering and conspiracy. He is the first former US president to be indicted in court since April.
Trump was indicted in New York, for paying hush money to a porn girl to silence her; in Florida, for mishandling government documents; and, in Washington, for conspiracy to upend his 2020 loss to US President Joe Biden.
From January till November 2024, therefore, Trump will be busy attending court hearings and at the same time waging his campaign as president of the USA. Ironically, the ex-president is leading all Republican candidates, according to an August 9 report of the “Real Clear Politics” survey group. All but two of the GOP pretenders are willing to support Trump if nominated as their presidential bet.
One other survey surprise is that Trump and Biden (Democrats) are dead-heat tied at 44 percent-44 percent if elections were held today.
The American polls are different in that their president is elected by the Electoral College and not by the popular vote. For instance, in the 2016 polls, Hillary shellacked Trump in the popular vote only to lose in the Electoral College.
In America, one candidate must at least garner 270 of the 538 electoral votes to win.
Under Philippine electoral laws, a convicted felon is permanently barred from running for public office. In America, however, here is a man facing multiple charges (with enough evidence to merit indictment) but is seriously within reach of the presidency – in such a “democratic” nation.
But the time Trump will have to allot defending himself against grave charges instead of campaigning in 2024 can perhaps get Biden reelected for a second term- despite mixed signals pervading the US economy.
In Russia, news headlines centered on the mysterious crashing of the plane bearing Russian dissident Yevgeny Prigozhin (Wagner leader) just outside Moscow a few minutes after taking off. Killed with him were some of his trusted lieutenants and three crew members.
Traitors in Russia do not live for long, but it seemed too soon to happen after the Prigozhin’s mutiny against Putin—an event that raised doubt at that time as to whether Putin was “weak and was losing control.”
Kremlin and Putin wanted the whole world to know, or at least suspect, that Putin was behind the obvious assassination to perpetuate the myth that Putin is “still in charge.” Anything “tragic” like this in Russia is always either “ordered, permitted, or known” by Putin.
Since taking power in 2000, Putin (with his KGB propensities) has reportedly seen his enemies- just like in the movies—either jailed, disappearing, kidnapped, poisoned, falling off from buildings and hospitals, or killed in vehicular accidents. And Russian society keeps quiet and even perhaps sanctions it.
Because the unwritten “sacred covenant” in Russia, we gathered, is for their dictator to provide “national stability” in exchange for his almost limitless freedom to exercise his political prerogatives over society.
Putin made sure, he co-opted many of the commanders of Prigozhin ( to no longer follow the latter) and secured the business interests of Wagner in the Middle East and Africa (in favor of Russia) before he made what is apparently his doing in that fatal plane crash.
Having made his point, Putin is expected to even be more ruthless and intolerant of any internal dissent in Russia especially since Russia is not winning the war in Ukraine and suffering from the many economic sanctions.
Not only had the Ukrainians taken back some of the captured territories, but they had engaged their enemies right at the borders of Russia itself and were able to send drones to attack the Moscow capital. It is alleged that Putin is allegedly given the wrong information from the field that Russia is winning the war and thus he continues with his stunted dream to usurp Ukraine into the Russian juggernaut.
Since the Ukraine-Russia Battle would likely extend into a war of horrible attrition, the only way, analysts say, that Putin can be deposed- is- internally, through a coup and a military dictatorship. That is not necessarily good for the world.
Without a visible, viable successor to Putin, the tendencies of the junta are crucial- with respect to extending or ending the Ukraine war and with the use or non-use of Russia’s huge nuclear weaponry.
If Biden wins over Trump (November 2024) and Putin remains in charge in Moscow, expect the Ukraine situation to elongate further for at least another year or so.
The problem with that scenario is the world will continue to experience the same kind of supply chain disruptions and agricultural food scarcity that the senseless war has so far inflicted mercilessly on the rest of us.
That scene would look like the middle part of a frightening war film. Whose ending only the “Great Director” up there will know for certain.
*** Zoilo P. Dejaresco, a former banker, is a financial consultant and media practitioner. He is a “Life and Media” member of the Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines. His views here, however, are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of Finex and the BusinessMirror. dejraesocbingo@yahoo.com.