Zoilo “Bingo” P. Dejaresco III l March 16, 2023 l Manila Bulletin
IN PROGRESSIVE NATIONS like the United States where there is easy access to credit and high per capita income, it is easy for them to say that economic recovery there can be indicated by the sales of vehicles and houses. Not in the Philippines.
Developers here will also harp on the fact that there has been a 6-8 million shortfall in houses relative to those who need them here for decades, therefore, it is easy to sell real estate here. Not always- and not all types and not to everyone.
But at least, according to Colliers, one of the country’s leading real estate companies and think tanks, the year 2022 was a real estate “breakout” year after lackadaisical pandemic years, especially 2020 and 2021.
For instance, real estate office “transactions” of 603,000 in 2022 is a 43% rise over 2021’s 422,000. The five main winner areas are Fort Bonifacio (196K), Makati CBD (111k), Bay Area (73k), Ortigas CBD (65k) and Makati Fringes (50k). IT-BPM (43%) and traditional Non-BPO (50%) are still market leaders while POGOs are no longer big determinants of demand for office spaces.
Overall vacancy office rates in Metro Manila scaled up from only 15.7% in 2021 to 18.8% in 2022 mainly due to an increase in finished stocks. Rental rates in all major commercial district areas in Metro are, however, going down except for Fort Bonifacio.
There is a bigger attraction for) “flexible Space” ( or sharing office space) where vacancy rates in 2022 at 11.9% was a major improvement from the high of 41% in 2021. Is this a new leasing trend?
PROJECTED OFFICE SUPPLY
The projected total office supply in 2023 is nowhere near the boom years from 2017-2019 and only equals that of the year 2016. The comparative office supply situation in the next five years (according to Colliers):
End 2022 End 2026 Makati CBD 3.468M 3.507M Fort Bonifacio 2.2474M 2.819M Ortigas 2.220M 2.460M Quezon City 1.570M 2.195M Bay Area 1.321M 1.522M
PROVINCIAL GROWTH
A growing segment is the real estate sector in the provinces which now accounts for a huge 27% of total transactions in 2022. The following are considered as the growth provinces: (a) Cebu (132k), Davao (39k), Pampanga (25k), Bacolod (25k) and Laguna (6k).
In terms of the tax-free havens like PEZA stocks(2022), these are the province leaders: (a) Cebu (287K sq,m), (b) Pampanga ( 95K s m), (c) Ilioilo (50k sq m), (d) Bacolod (32k sq m) and (e) Davao (22k sq m).
For the popular IT-BPM demand (2023-2028)- Metro Manila will build offices of up to 240,000 sqm compared to the provinces’ 200,000 sqm. In validating projections, one must apply a sensitivity scenario where one assigns a specific ratio between RTO (office) and WFH (work from home) peculiar for a particular locale.
A dark horse in the demand for office space is the HIMs- (health-related industries). It is said that if RP can stop the brain drain and keep all health-related graduates to stay in the Philippines for work, a new demand of 45,000 sq m of office spaces shall have been created.
SEEING ON BALANCE
The positive points for real estate are the increasing population growth rate of the Philippines and our already dense population of 109 Million Filipinos who are mostly young. GDP is expected to rise from 6-7 percent in 2023 although many institutions have varying GDP growth rate projections for the Philippines.
It is beneficial to understand that in the United States, the appetite for real estate is dampened by the ever-increasing mortgage interest rates which is also happening here, to a certain extent. This drop is estimated to have a 7.2% impact downwards for demand.
Many countries offer a different view. For instance, there is fear of the dampening of real estate prices- in the UK where the projections are from a 5-10 reduction in property values fueled by higher inflation and the problems in Ukraine.
In sum, one must be critical about where to invest in real estate in terms of location and property types as they will inevitably vary over time and changing circumstances.
*** (Dejaresco, a former banker, is a media practitioner and financial consultant. He is a Life and Media member of Finex. His views here, however, are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of Finex. Dejarescobingo@yahoo.com).