Zoilo “Bingo” P. Dejaresco III l December 21, 2022 l Manila Bulletin
There are, at least, two reasons why the Russia-Ukraine War will not end soon. One is that Ukraine represents a “rich” buffer between Russia and the NATO and European political influence; the other is that ‘failure” to win the war will create sociopolitical disability in Russia and end Vladimir Putin’s despotic regime. It is a major Kremlin concern.
As long as he lives, analysts believe Putin will not stop coveting Ukraine – if he cannot conquer it, she will bombard it to become inhabitable by the pro-Western citizenry. It is a brutal strategy that Putin’s history as a KGB agent makes easy to conceive and implement.
Even if it means using the entire 1.5 million ill-trained and ill-equipped Russian reservists and “pushing them under the bus” to invade Ukraine more, Putin will not hesitate to use that play, observers noted.
Even if Russia failed to diversify economically- Putin’s first ten years of power were marked by prosperity due solely to the exportation of oil. The recent economic embargo, however, drove Putin into the arms of China’s Xi- whose colossal country (China) needs mammoth amounts of oil, Turkey and OPEC represented by Saudi Arabia, heretofore, a US staunch ally.
Russia wants the allies to act as one against the challenge of the huge “shale oil” business of America. Already the embargo will cause, according to the IMF, Russia’s GDP to be negative at 3.4%, two-quarters of such negativity placing the nation in a technical state of “recession”. “Business Insider,” says Europe has suspended buying all seaborne energy products from Russia and placed a price cap of $60 per barrel, forcing Russia to redirect its oil to Asia at “very steep discounts.”
But the wily Putin has quietly kept the Russian populace at relative ease by increasing pensions and minimum wage even though the state could not afford it.
That probably explains why a recent survey in Russia showed that although 50% of the public still said that they are tired of the war, about 40% still want Russia to implement its annexation of Ukraine.
Scientists at the Carnegie Foundation of International Peace, however, think that it is the elite- that also includes the learned, the (private security forces -siloviki) and the oligarchs who will ultimately decide Kremlin’s future. And it seems that since September when Russia abandoned Kherson, the tide of public opinion is slowly shifting towards the de-escalation of the Ukraine War.
While the elite “Radicals” believe that a Russian war defeat is “destabilizing”, the “Pragmatists” (who are gaining adherence) want Russia to stop the war to re-assess, then strengthen its national military might and economy and massage its wounded pride. Many of them are aware that while Putin is full of “rhetoric” about using nuclear weapons against its enemies, they know it is foolhardy to do so. Against the rest of the nuclear-armed Free World, Russia can be reduced to ashes although the rest of the world will also feel the holocaust of a proverbial world war III if a nuclear conflagration ensues.
It is believed that this is the elite sector that Putin listens to and believes in – not the teeming hoi polloi. Will this prove stronger than Putin’s dream of “reuniting Russia” and back to its previous greatness?
In the meantime, Ukraine continues to face its worst “winter of discontent” as Russian missiles relentlessly pound on targeted Ukraine’s energy and water facilities- inflicting untold misery upon thousands of Ukrainians. Among the cities retargeted for missile attacks are Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kryvi Ri and Zaporhikhkhis.
The US had installed a massive surface-to-air missile defense system there, including the Patriot soon, to fend off those missiles fired from Russian frigates in the free Black Sea into Ukraine territory, making Kremlin more than just furious.
So, while only the “elites” in Kremlin can cut short a merciless never-ending Ukraine war by Russia, the NATO forces believe that, if the war de-escalates a bit,- in the long view- that would be the best time to arm Ukraine with Economic capability and military might to deter any future incursion into this “crown jewel” of that part of Europe.
Will the Kremlin elite “Pragmatists’ ever talk sense into Putin this time? How long will that take?
*** (Bingo Dejaresco, a former banker, is a financial consultant and media practitioner. He is a Life and Media member of Finex. His views here, however, are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of Finex. Dejarescobingo@yahoo.com)